Scenarios. and Implications.
Climatic Awareness, Everybody’s Reality, Your Concern.
Climatic Effect, Privately Perceived Reality.
Effect #1: Droughts.
Effect #2: Thunderstorms.
Effect #3: Forest Fires.
Effect #4: Acidification.
Effect #5: Inundation.
Effect #6: Social Services.
Effect #7: Refugees, Anarchy, War.
Summing this up (slides continued below)
As illustrated by the 400,000 attendees at the People’s Climate March in New York City of 2014 and the solidarity events that took place around the word, the realities of climate change are no longer only being stressed by environmentalists. The effects of climate change will be economic, social, and environmental and will alter people’s lives in a myriad of ways.
Social, Environmental, Economic & Psychological Implications of Climatic Effects:
There are various stages at which the worsening effects will arrive as time goes by. Effects at final stages are exhibited in slides above and in summary below, with additional features emerging at an initial (“adaptation” & “mitigation”) stage, intermediate (relocation & reconstruction) stage, or final (decay & anarchy) stage categorized below, under Remark.
As an introductory warmup, we suggest you read this brief paper on initial and incipient intermediate stages of global warming impacts by UCS – the Union of Concerned Scientists (of Cambridge, MA/US). Then be sure to get back here and reconnect to the Remarks below on the slides above.
1. severe droughts increase ➽
starvation & thirst, crop destruction, deforestation, desert propagation, food & water prices up, uninhabitable areas, lower quality food, less for your kids, less travel & fun.
>> Remark: [initial] – A warmer climate causes more and lengthier droughts which cause more and ampler wildfires (see 3. below). Crops will die and so will grazing cattle and wildlife animals, insects and birds in ecosystems suffering from severe water shortage. Dry soils catch wind easily and blow away in dust storms, leaving an ever thinner soil layer, ever more impoverished soil quality and thereof an ever lower agricultural fertility. Also, wetlands evaporate whereby living spaces for species therein succumb or at best of luck make a translocation to another wetland ecosystem. Surface freshwater supplies for humans, animals, crops, grasslands, eventually trees – whole ecosystems, and in time groundwater supplies as well – run low with fatal consequences for all.
>> [final] – With time, bush and forest lands will succumb, turning them into infertile desert land, adding to the ongoing desert proliferation on most continents. Mass-extinction of animals and plant species will occur at an accelerating rate. Water dams for power production run dry, implying a dropping supply of electricity in relation to a more constant demand, which will push electricity prices ever higher up. National and international conflicts, not least between local populations and multinational companies having usurped water assets and privileges (not uncommonly by means of corruption), on freshwater supplies are by most researchers estimated to develop into warfare. And, might we add, so will conflicts on food, living space, and other assets and utilities today cornered by occidental ownership or multinational corporations — it’s just that not even those researchers’ imagination or foresight have taken them all the way thru to the finish line, not yet. They all seem to confine themselves to look around the next corner, but no further, that’s it. Ironically, you can find lots of educational institutions in our day propagating “the world needs more meteorologists and climate researchers, come join our courses”. Well, the world needs no more quasi-expertise looking around the next corner with eyes wide shut, since all it’ll take is some normal IQ and sense of foresight to read what all the signs are telling us and to where they are pointing, right? What the world really needs are instead natural scientific researchers, and excellent project leaders and entrepreneurs. We also need to imminently mass-educate the masses, not only children but all of us, in order to turn ignorance and insouciance, and attitudes of disregard and denialism around into a state of full Awareness! This is the only way to turn around the heads of those who day by day cripple our future to make them see that they can profit big-time even from doing what’s good. This is the only way to bring about a demand for clean, cheap, eternal, fossil-free fuels, and hence to induce new markets that will run those self-sufficient disbeliever oil Tycoons and so many others in the Elite out of business. This is the Time!
2. thunderstorms increase ➽
towns eradicated, flooding, coastal & city inundation (e.g. “Sandy” storm at New York in 2012, “Katrina” hurricane at New Orleans in 2005), insurance premiums & bank loan costs up, no insurance, sell your house/apartment & relocate or risk all, lower quality food, less everyday expenditure, less for your kids, less travel & fun.
>> Remark: [initial] – The frequency and intensity of hurricanes (/typhoons/thunderstorms/cyclones/tornadoes/trombs) are directly subject to the ocean surface temperatures; they typically start whirling at 26.5 centigrades, and both numbers, air velocity and water contents are related to the actual water temperature of the ocean’s surface. Computer simulation models point towards hurricane damage scenarios of later stages much worse than the ones we see today or the ones prognosticated for the [initial] stage. Coastal inundations will worsen since ever higher wind speeds press water ever higher up over harbor docks and beaches. In fact, hurricanes render coastal inundations already in our day (“Sandy” hitting New York-NJ-DC-MD-PA in 2012, “Katrina” hitting New Orleans-AL-MS-LA-FL in 2005, etc), not only because of the water content of the whirls but primarily due to the pressure they exert on ocean waves, shoveling them ahead like a tsunami.
>> [intermediate] – The airborne water contents multiply as the wind whirls magnify, soaking inland soils, forests and towns with salt water hampering vegetation and crops, working like an immense sledgehammer on buildings and other constructions whose soaked foundations also become undermined, turning into a quagmire and therefore more easily fall victims to the whirlwinds. Riverbed flooding and destroyed crops, grazing lands and harvests, flushed-away cultivation soils, bridges, roads and railways, electric wiring and other infrastructure, landslides with casualties will become ever more commonplace, and the scope and magnitude of damages will increase dramatically.
3. forest fires increase ➽
deforestation, villages, houses & buildings lost, insurance premiums & bank loan costs up, no insurance, sell & relocate or risk all, lower quality food, less everyday expenditure, less for your kids, less travel & fun.
>> Remark: [initial] – A warmer climate causes more and lengthier droughts, which causes more and ampler wildfires, which in turn releases much CO2 from the burned vegetation into the atmosphere, which decreases the photosynthetic leaf based CO2 absorption, which in turn causes an even warmer climate, and so on in a vicious circle. Houses and villages foremost in California and Australia fall each year victims to ever more frequent, ferocious and extensive wildfires. Man and nature are both accountable for this, but a live cigarette tossed out of the car window causing a wildfire (however reprehensive) would not be igniting the same great numbers of wildfires annually given a cooler and damper climate. Vast areas of national parks, red-listed animals’ reservations, wildlife habitats, grazing lands, human settlements — all are assets not only of great ecologic or individual values but also represent great economic values, values being lost ever more by the years. Those directly hit – those who lose their homes, vehicles, machinery, industries and woodland estates – often don’t get any indemnification from their insurance company who refer to force majeure in the standard conditional text of their insurance policies. And policy premiums raise by each new wildfire event in certain typically dry woodland regions or whole countries. Society as a whole suffer economically which indirectly hits every tax payer in the country, contributing – in combination with the other climatic detriments – to the augmentation of tax based expenditure and coherently the lessening of private expenditure.
4. oceans & lakes acidify ➽
food chains broken – also terrestrial animal food chains, starvation, food prices up, less & lower quality food, less every day expenditure, less travel & fun, find another job (income).
>> Remark: [intermediate] – Certain marine organisms including mollusks, crustaceans, reef-forming corals and some species of algae and phytoplankton are particularly vulnerable to small changes in pH (ocean acidity). These species, known as “marine calcifiers,” all create skeletons or shells out of calcium carbonate. The essential building block for this process is the carbonate ion, but when combined with hydrogen ions released by carbonic acid, it is rendered useless for shell-building organisms. Marine calcifiers face a second challenge: their calcium carbonate shells dissolve in environments that are too acidic. In fact, some deep, cold ocean waters are naturally too acidic for marine calcifiers to survive, meaning that these organisms only exist above a certain depth known as the “saturation horizon.” With ocean acidification, the saturation horizon is expected to shift closer to the surface by hundreds of meters relative to its position during the 1800s. The Southern and Arctic oceans, which are colder and therefore naturally more acidic, may become entirely inhospitable for organisms with shells made from aragonite – one of the weaker mineral forms of calcium carbonate – by our mid-century. Those regions are the nurseries, and those organisms found the backbone, of all marine food chains — implying that when these chains break, marine life will likely go extinct altogether! And hence, with time, most of the terrestrial food chains too.
5. coastlines inundate ➽
cities, ports & harbors, infrastructure nullified, nuclear hazard, oceans = (turned into) sewage, insurance premiums & bank loan costs up, financial sector & Stock Exchange dissolve, no insurance, sell/abandon & relocate (to where?), uncountable beggars & refugees, high leverage & heavy DEBTS, less of everything (if anything).
>> Remark: [initial] – A. Communities relocating, B. insurance policy denials already: [A.] At the beginning of 2014, Fiji’s first village to relocate moved 1 km further inland as a part of the country’s climate change program as seawater had already began to flood residents’ homes in the village of Vunidogoloa. It is expected that 34 other villages any time soon also be moved as Fiji grapples with eroding coastlines and increased flooding. The entire nation of Kiribati, a small island state in the Pacific, is expected to become uninhabitable due to sea level rise and the country has recently bought land in Fiji in order to relocate. “The cat on the rat, the rat on the rope”… This means ecosystems, nature and habitats will be lost, and ways of life having existed for ages will be relocated and changed forever. [B.] Already today, around the world in exposed areas or soon-to-be, insurance companies are precluding new policy holder from real estate insurance, also dramatically raising premiums for existing policy holders. Coastal areas with elevations less than 10 m above mean sea level account only for 2% of Earth’s surface but are inhabited by 10% of the population — sounds “reassuring enough” to some, but mean sea level implies that high tides at places will reach up to 10 m since high (spring) minus low tide elevations (like in Atlantic Canada) differ up to 20 m (British isles up to 15 m, Atlantic France up to 14 m, Argentina 13 m, Alaska 12 m, …) wherefore no one (already now) can live between the mean sea level and the spring tide sea level at any place tidal differences! So, much of these 2% of Earth’s surface will be inundated already at an early sea level increase stage. The great majority of those areas are depending on coastal infrastructure (see blog post “Zero options? Never.”) that will be useless and even destroyed already at a 1-2 m sea level increase (from 0.5 m with hard winds).
>> [final] – With time, less and less communities and countries will be able or be permitted, let alone find it meaningful, to buy land anywhere as all coastal or low-terrain nations will be facing the same trauma: Where do we go, how do we support ourselves and our loved ones in order to survive, what can we do? This will ignite both internal and international conflicts, ensued by warfare, on claim for living space, infrastructure, farming land, natural resources, energy, freshwater, and production facilities.
6. social services dissolve ➽
no public schools/universities, nursery or delivery care, sick or health care, national insurance (NI), rescue service, legal aid. Corruption increase, kids in the streets, high infant mortality, medicine & treatment shortage, no rules/rights, bribe all (to utilize services, claim civic rights, etc).
>> Remark: [initial] – Poverty and inequality, which we have been working to improve for decades, will only get worse because disadvantaged groups do not have the resources to cope with effects such as extreme flooding or droughts that may displace them or change their way of life. Women, children and elderly, rural and urban poor, and small farmers will be the hardest hit at this stage — money rules, as always…
>> [final] – If the monetary and financial systems collapse world-wide (see 7. Remark) and no new better functional, perhaps citizen owned ones arise , then it’s hard to see our societal welfare state functionalities maintained — how would everybody be able to pay for it? Bartering obviously would not work in modern western world type of societies. Until solving this problem, employees would not be able to make a living on other than craftsmanship, art work, music, … any practical competence that in pre-modern society was attractable for bartering. And as governments, authorities and communities must cut down hard on everything – at the [initial] stage (in vain trying) to mitigate climate change effects and to adapt to them, but at later stages to use scarce remaining assets predominantly to protect the Elite and preserve their way of life, and to build and maintain mega-size refugee camps – there may not be so much resources left for societal services that we as tax payers today take for granted: public health care, schools, rescue and policiary services, e-t-c. The functional judicial system may also be trampled down by Corruption, and that’s where civilized society dissolves into Anarchy.
7. city-size refugee camps, endless refugee streams, anarchy, civil & international conflicts & war ➽
>> Remark: [final] – Refugee camps exhibiting mass-starvation, mass-disease, mass-murder & mass-graves — due to scarce resources of food, water, hygiene, medics & medicine, shelter, and heating, and due to “fierce competition” thereupon (laws of the djungle prevailing). Al-Qaeda/ISIS (/IS/Daesh etc) or their offspring will easily target and recruit from refugee camps and lines. And the Elite will relocate to safe areas, building shielded communities forming strictly guarded states within the state, holding army forces to keep intruders outside. Just like in a zombie-movie…
At an earlier stage the global chain-linked financial system, a quagmire in our day, will collapse altogether — this time, finding a scapegoat won’t do any good, this time the collapse won’t confine itself to pushing just one piece of rock named Lehman Brothers into the pond, watching the ripple effect (which in 2008 cost us, common caring people, upwards of 100 000 billion USD to repair! ). This time the entire load of rocks – be they named Bank of America, ICBC, J P Morgan Chase, HSBC, Wells Fargo, or whatever – will plunge into the pond, yielding tsunamis all over that’ll render money useless and financial assets valueless, most of them overnight. We even hold it likely that real estate – Your house – will “go public”, just like in the aftermath of the French and Russian revolutions, in the turmoil that follows. Remember, Anarchy follows no rules (just like Warfare — and Love, they say) and no armed force will withstand the mass-movements and mass-actions of disillusioned and desperate masses. Google that, if in disbelief, and Do run Your imaginary race all up to the finish line. It isn’t nearly as hard as panicking around on the roads else may prove later, looking for Your loved ones, for food and water, for warmth and shelter… It’s of course impossible to know what will grow in the ashes of a crashed global financial system at this [final] stage. Maybe we’ll all be forced back to isolated and well guarded small societies intermingled with the still habitable countryside protectionist cities that won’t let outsiders in — or maybe they’ll let us in, into gigantic refugee camps or letting us try to integrate. Sort of the refugee situation of today, only permanented, worsened and so much manifolded. Maybe we’ll go back to bartering, since no one any longer relies on bills and coins, or confide in digital assets in some bank’s database — or maybe a new financial system different from our present coiner bank like one will arise, controlled by common caring people rather than the Bilderberg* inspired Elite of our day. Citizens owned and controlled banks, would that be something Worth considering? Or just too naive to believe they would last very long, before corruption and coiner ghosts again would take over? The idea of bartering is sometimes heard from old-time romantics but it probably would not be feasible in modern occidental style societies like ours. Employees would not be able to make a living on other than craftmanship, art work, music, any practical competence that in pre-modern society was attractable for bartering. What on Earth would all those “left over” people do for a living?
(*) representing the global power Elite inside the business- and industry world, media, and politics.
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Here are all our posts in this blog:
Water. and Air. – – – – – – – – (2016 Nov 27)
Facts. non-Alternative. – – – – – (2017 Feb 20)
News. Terrifying. – – – – – – – (2017 Mar 29)
Zero options? Never. – – – – – – (2016 Dec 05)
Scenarios. and Implications. – – – – (2017 Jan 02)
Gates Notes. on Climate-Energy. – – (2017 Jan 24)
Answers. to Questions. – – – – – (2016 Dec 14)
Testimonials. of Progress. – – – – (2017 Jul 21)
CCR – APS processes – – – – – – (2016 Dec 14)
APS/e3 concept outlines – – – – – (2016 Dec 14)
CatELab-APS/e3 research software – – (2016 Dec 14)
CatELab & APS/e3 integrated processes – (2016 Dec 14)
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